Zelinsky W
Demography. 1978 Feb;15(1):13-39.
We analyze population change and net migration, by age and sex, from 1940 to 1970, for 1,834 Nonmetropolitan Pennsylvania Minor Civil Divisions (MCD's) classified by residence, population potential, socioeconomic status, and distance from metropolitan centers. Our analysis indicates, as expected, reconcentration of residents from both urban and remoter nonmetropolitan localities into exurban peripheries 25 to 35 miles for metropolitan centers. Since 1960, however, a "turnaround" appears in many truly rural tracts, which have been experiencing an influx or retention of persons 35 years of age and older. Statistical explanations are strongest for males in poor, isolated places, weakest for more accessible, socioeconomically advanced places and their female inhabitants. Throughout the study period and area, nonurban MCD's register more positively than the rural.
我们分析了1940年至1970年间，宾夕法尼亚州1834个非都市小型民政分区（MCD）按居住、人口潜力、社会经济地位和距都市中心距离分类的人口变化和净迁移情况，涉及年龄和性别。我们的分析表明，正如预期的那样，居民从城市和更偏远的非都市地区重新集中到距都市中心25至35英里的远郊地区。然而，自1960年以来，许多真正的农村地区出现了“转变”，这些地区一直在经历35岁及以上人口的流入或留存。统计解释对贫困、偏远地区的男性最为有力，对交通更便利、社会经济发达地区及其女性居民最为无力。在整个研究期间和地区，非城市MCD的表现比农村地区更为积极。
