Wasserman I M
Suicide Life Threat Behav. 1984 Fall;14(3):143-56. doi: 10.1111/j.1943-278x.1984.tb00445.x.
A number of social science investigators have shown that a downturn in the economy leads to an increase in the suicide rate. However, the previous works on the subject are flawed by the fact that they employ years as their temporal unit of analysis. This time period is so large that it makes it difficult for investigators to precisely determine the length of the lag effect, while at the same time removing the autocorrelation effects. Also, although most works on suicide and the business cycle employ unemployment as a measure of a downturn in the business cycle, the average duration of unemployment represents a better measure for determining the social impact of an economic downturn. From 1947 to 1977 the average monthly duration of unemployment is statistically related to the suicide rate using multivariate time-series analysis. From 1910 to 1939 the Ayres business index, a surrogate measure for movement in the business cycle, is statistically related to the monthly suicide rate. An examination of the findings confirms that in most cases a downturn in the economy causes an increase in the suicide rate.
许多社会科学研究者表明，经济衰退会导致自杀率上升。然而，此前关于该主题的研究存在缺陷，因为它们以年份作为时间分析单位。这个时间段过长，使得研究者难以精确确定滞后效应的时长，同时消除自相关效应。此外，尽管大多数关于自杀与商业周期的研究将失业率作为商业周期衰退的衡量指标，但平均失业持续时间是确定经济衰退社会影响的更好指标。从1947年到1977年，使用多元时间序列分析，平均每月失业持续时间与自杀率存在统计相关性。从1910年到1939年，艾尔斯商业指数（商业周期变动的替代指标）与每月自杀率存在统计相关性。对研究结果的审视证实，在大多数情况下，经济衰退会导致自杀率上升。
