Hazard analysis applied to microbial growth in foods: development of mathematical models describing the effect of water activity.

Mathematical models have been developed which describe the effect of lowering the water activity on the growth kinetics of Staphylococcus aureus and Salmonella typhimurium. By treating the lag phase and exponential phase kinetics separately predictions can be made on the extent of microbial growth over successive time/temperature cycles. Staph. aureus was far more tolerant than Salm. typhimurium to lowered water activity and under near growth limiting conditions of water activity and temperature was showing lag periods as long as ca 40 d. The maximum lag period observed for Salm. typhimurium was ca 5 d. Under these conditions the predicted generation times for Staph. aureus were 2-3 d and for Salm. typhimurium.