Metz J A, Wedel M, Angulo A F
Biometrics. 1983 Sep;39(3):765-70.
In this communication we calculate the probability of discovering a simple epidemic in a large population before the epidemic has reached a given level of prevalence, by regularly taking a small random sample from the population for microbiological screening. Apart from the general formula which has to be evaluated numerically, we derive various simple approximation formulae which shed light on the properties of various monitoring regimes. These formulae are, moreover, rather robust against deviations from the model specifications. The results are applied to the evaluation of the efficiency of an infection-monitoring program in an animal breeding centre.
在本通讯中，我们通过定期从人群中抽取少量随机样本进行微生物筛查，计算在疫情达到给定流行水平之前在大量人群中发现简单疫情的概率。除了必须通过数值计算来评估的通用公式外，我们还推导了各种简单的近似公式，这些公式揭示了各种监测方案的特性。此外，这些公式对于偏离模型规范的情况相当稳健。结果被应用于评估动物育种中心感染监测计划的效率。
