Kuzemenska P, Kriz B, Svandova E
Zentralbl Bakteriol Mikrobiol Hyg A. 1984 May;257(1):195-203.
Meningococcal meningitis has become a problem in many European countries, with epidemics occurring during the past 10-15 years. There have also been outbreaks in some non-European countries. The latest meningococcal meningitis epidemic recorded in the CSR (Czech Socialist Republic) occurred in 1953, with the morbidity reaching 14.8 per 100 000 population. After the mid 1950's there was a gradual decline in morbidity, the lowest value (0.3 per 100 000 population) being reached in 1974. Since 1975 there has been a continual rise in morbidity, the value notified for 1982 was 1.2 per 100 000 population. An analysis of the epidemiological situation in meningococcal meningitis in CSR for the past 30 years was performed. Different indicators of the onset of epidemics were evaluated. Shift in the age distribution of patients was found to be the most valuable sign of changing epidemiological situtation. An attempt was made to prognosticate mathematically its further development. The analysis of the epidemiological data suggests that CSR is in a preepidemic situation. This finding is all the more important because a change has been found in the serogroup and serotype patterns of Neisseria meningitidis strains isolated from cerebrospinal fluid.
在许多欧洲国家，脑膜炎球菌性脑膜炎已成为一个问题，在过去10至15年期间曾有过疫情爆发。在一些非欧洲国家也出现过疫情。捷克斯洛伐克社会主义共和国（CSR）有记录的最新一次脑膜炎球菌性脑膜炎疫情发生在1953年，发病率达到每10万人14.8例。20世纪50年代中期以后，发病率逐渐下降，1974年降至最低值（每10万人0.3例）。自1975年以来，发病率持续上升，1982年报告的发病率为每10万人1.2例。对捷克斯洛伐克社会主义共和国过去30年脑膜炎球菌性脑膜炎的流行病学情况进行了分析。评估了疫情爆发的不同指标。发现患者年龄分布的变化是流行病学情况改变的最有价值迹象。尝试对其进一步发展进行数学预测。流行病学数据分析表明，捷克斯洛伐克社会主义共和国处于疫情前期状态。这一发现尤为重要，因为从脑脊液中分离出的脑膜炎奈瑟菌菌株的血清群和血清型模式已发现有变化。
