Vetter N J, Jones D A, Victor C R
Br Med J (Clin Res Ed). 1984 Nov 3;289(6453):1193-5. doi: 10.1136/bmj.289.6453.1193.
The proportion of people aged over 70 years in the community will, it is estimated, rise appreciably over the next 10 to 15 years. The impact, however, on different areas and different services will vary greatly. Using county based population projections this paper estimates the likely future demand by elderly people for home services in two contrasting general practices. To maintain services to meet the present demand, increases ranging from +11% to +55%, depending on the area and the service, will be required.
据估计，社区中70岁以上人口的比例在未来10至15年内将显著上升。然而，其对不同地区和不同服务的影响差异很大。本文利用基于郡县的人口预测，估计了两种截然不同的普通医疗实践中老年人未来对居家服务的可能需求。为维持服务以满足当前需求，根据地区和服务的不同，所需的增幅在11%至55%之间。
