Anschütz F
Fortschr Med. 1984 Jun 21;102(23):639-42.
The preliminary diagnosis based on the patient's history and the results of a physical examination, is considered to be the most probable one. In general, however, differential diagnoses with a smaller degree of probability must also be taken into account. This article shows how--making use of simple probability theory--an assessment can be made as to whether an available diagnostic instrument is capable of increasing the probability of a post-test diagnosis vis-a-vis the pre-test probability level. The terms sensitivity and specificity are explained with the aid of clinical examples, and the possibility of increasing the probability of the diagnosis by iteration is discussed.
基于患者病史和体格检查结果做出的初步诊断，被认为是最有可能的诊断。然而，一般来说，可能性较小的鉴别诊断也必须予以考虑。本文展示了如何——利用简单的概率论——评估一种可用的诊断工具相对于检验前概率水平是否能够提高检验后诊断的概率。借助临床实例解释了敏感性和特异性这两个术语，并讨论了通过迭代增加诊断概率的可能性。
