Collins J J, Devine N
Environ Health Perspect. 1984 Jun;56:255-9. doi: 10.1289/ehp.8456255.
The reasons for the increase in both incidence and mortality from malignant melanoma are not clear at this time, although there is an indication of a "generation effect" in the increasing frequency of the disease. The application of an age-period-cohort model to incidence data on malignant melanoma for the State of Connecticut indicate that, unlike mortality, the increase is almost entirely related to period factors. Two explanations are provided to explain this pattern of period factor increase. First, the increase in incidence could be artifically produced by better and earlier diagnosis. Second, a decrease in ozone level in the atmosphere may be responsible for the increase.
目前，恶性黑色素瘤发病率和死亡率上升的原因尚不清楚，尽管有迹象表明该病发病率上升存在“代际效应”。将年龄-时期-队列模型应用于康涅狄格州恶性黑色素瘤的发病率数据表明，与死亡率不同，发病率的上升几乎完全与时期因素有关。针对时期因素上升的这种模式给出了两种解释。第一，发病率的上升可能是由于更好、更早的诊断人为造成的。第二，大气中臭氧水平的下降可能是发病率上升的原因。
