Dermatology manpower projections.

Since an oversupply of physician specialists leads to a waste of professional resources, planning of the number of physicians may be desirable. A model projecting the future supply of dermatologists was formulated on the basis of current residency capacity, which produces about 270 dermatologists per year, and on experience regarding the average length of active clinical practice. How changes in the training capacity affect the future supply of dermatologists was also examined. The model projects an equilibrium supply of about 9,500 dermatologists, or 3.2 per 100,000 population early in the 21st century, provided the number of new graduates remains at its present level. Assuming no economic barriers to access, 2.8 to three dermatologists per 100,000 population should be adequate to meet demand. Because of many unpredictable factors, periodic reassessment of dermatology training capacity is necessary.