Clinical and angiographic predictors of new total coronary occlusion in coronary artery disease: analysis of 313 nonoperated patients.

A new coronary artery occlusion was found in 98 of 313 consecutive patients (31%) with coronary artery disease treated medically who underwent catheterization twice, 39 +/- 25 months apart. Multivariate logistic regression displayed 8 independent predictors of new occlusion. Four were available at the time of the second angiogram: the interval between the 2 studies (p = 0.005), a decrease in ejection fraction (p less than 0.01), the appearance of bundle branch block (p less than 0.01), and an interim myocardial infarction (p less than 0.05). Four other predictors were found at the time of the first angiogram: 2 angiographic characteristics, 1 related to the severity (presence of an 80% or greater luminal diameter narrowing of an artery supplying a non-akinetic left ventricular segment [p less than 0.005]) and 1 to the extent (count of the lesions narrowed 75% or less in luminal diameter in a 15-segment coding system [p less than 0.05]) of coronary artery disease, and 2 risk factors: smoking status (p less than 0.05) and male sex (p less than 0.05). The 140 male smokers with at least 80% diameter stenosis or at least 4 segments with moderate (75% or less) stenosis were at a higher risk of occlusion than the 173 other patients after intervals of less than 2 years (13 of 53 vs 7 of 74, p less than 0.01), 2 to 4 years (23 of 40 vs 10 of 47, p less than 0.005) and more than 4 years (27 of 47 vs 18 of 54, p less than 0.05).(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)