Spencer A J
Community Dent Oral Epidemiol. 1984 Feb;12(1):1-4. doi: 10.1111/j.1600-0528.1984.tb01400.x.
The aim of the present study was to examine yearly increments in exposure, cumulative exposure, and mean proportion of lifetime exposure to optimally fluoridated water supplies of Australian adolescents over the period 1960 to 1978 and to conditionally predict trends in those exposure measures from 1979 to 1990. The basis of the study was the history of the introduction of water fluoridation. Yearly increments were found to have been most varied, but cumulative exposure has continued to increase from a negligible level in 1960 to approximately two-thirds of adolescents being exposed in 1978. Proportion of lifetime exposure was represented by a smooth sigmoidal curve with time-lagging of successive curves for higher ages between 12 and 17-yr-old. Proportion of lifetime exposure was predicted to increase through to 1990 and 1996 for 12- and 17-yr-olds, respectively. This prediction showed little sensitivity to yearly increment conditions from 1979 to 1990.
本研究的目的是考察1960年至1978年期间澳大利亚青少年接触最佳氟化水源的年接触量增量、累积接触量以及终生接触量的平均比例，并对1979年至1990年期间这些接触量指标的趋势进行条件预测。该研究的基础是水氟化引入的历史。发现年接触量增量变化最大，但累积接触量从1960年的可忽略不计水平持续增加，到1978年约有三分之二的青少年接触。终生接触量比例由一条平滑的S形曲线表示，12至17岁较高年龄组的连续曲线存在时间滞后。预计12岁和17岁青少年的终生接触量比例分别将增加至1990年和1996年。该预测对1979年至1990年的年接触量增量条件不太敏感。
