Bailey W C
Suicide Life Threat Behav. 1983 Summer;13(2):95-107. doi: 10.1111/j.1943-278x.1983.tb00008.x.
This investigation examines the deterrence hypothesis of an inverse relationship between state execution rates and homicides. Although this question has received some attention in recent studies, the findings of these investigations are mixed. Cross-sectional analyses of states have typically shown execution and homicide rates to be positively associated, while at least two national time-series studies report support for the deterrence hypothesis. To test whether these divergent findings are result of the two different methodologies employed (cross-sectional vs. time-series), a methodology that combines the strengths of each is used in the present study. For the period 1950 to 1960, we examine cross-sectionally for states the relationship between changes in execution rates and changes in murder rates. This analysis does not find support for the deterrence argument for the certainty of the death penalty when a number of models of the execution rate--murder rate relationship are considered, and when a variety of imprisonment and socio-demographic factors are considered as control variables.
本调查检验了州执行死刑率与杀人案件之间呈反比关系的威慑假设。尽管这个问题在近期研究中已受到一些关注，但这些调查的结果却喜忧参半。对各州的横断面分析通常显示，执行死刑率与杀人率呈正相关，而至少有两项全国性时间序列研究报告支持威慑假设。为了检验这些不同的结果是否是由于采用了两种不同的方法（横断面研究与时间序列研究）所致，本研究采用了一种结合了每种方法优势的方法。对于1950年至1960年这一时期，我们对各州进行横断面研究，考察执行死刑率的变化与谋杀率的变化之间的关系。当考虑多种执行死刑率与谋杀率关系的模型，以及将各种监禁和社会人口因素作为控制变量时，该分析并未找到支持死刑确定性威慑论点的证据。
