Hanckel F S
Med Decis Making. 1984;4(1):59-68. doi: 10.1177/0272989X8400400109.
This article is a discussion of the consequences of "the problem of induction" as manifested in clinical decision making. All data, statistics, and probabilities are concerned with groups, generalizing from samples to other populations. It is not self-evident what such processes mean at the level of the individual patient. Some discussion of this problem is followed by a formulation of subjective probability that may contribute to the application and acceptance of clinical decision analysis.
本文讨论了“归纳问题”在临床决策中所表现出的后果。所有数据、统计信息和概率都涉及群体,是从样本推广到其他总体。对于个体患者而言,这些过程意味着什么并非显而易见。在对这一问题进行一些讨论之后,本文提出了主观概率,这可能有助于临床决策分析的应用和接受。