Adesina H O
Soc Sci Med. 1984;18(5):421-8. doi: 10.1016/0277-9536(84)90058-3.
This paper examined the spread of cholera epidemic to the towns of the former Western State of Nigeria and to the neighbouring villages of Ibadan after the initial introduction of the disease to Ibadan city by early January, 1971). In the diffusion process, an hierarchical diffusion was discovered at the town-village dichotomy while a distance decay function was justified at the purely urban level analyses. In the spread of cholera to all the surrounding villages of Ibadan, the epidemic speed was discovered to be too rapid that neither population size nor distance from Ibadan was relevant to the pattern of spread. The rate of cholera infection was observed to decline with distance from the city of Ibadan, while the duration of the epidemic obeyed the rank-size principles.
本文研究了霍乱疫情在1971年1月初首次传入伊巴丹市后,在尼日利亚前西部州的城镇以及伊巴丹周边村庄的传播情况。在传播过程中,发现城乡二元结构存在层级扩散,而在纯城市层面分析中,距离衰减函数是合理的。在霍乱向伊巴丹所有周边村庄传播的过程中,发现疫情传播速度极快,以至于人口规模和与伊巴丹的距离都与传播模式无关。观察到霍乱感染率随与伊巴丹市距离的增加而下降,而疫情持续时间遵循位序-规模原则。