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使用伽马多击模型进行风险评估时出现的一些实际问题。

Some practical problems arising from use of the gamma multihit model for risk estimation.

作者信息

Haseman J K, Hoel D G, Jennrich R I

出版信息

J Toxicol Environ Health. 1981 Sep;8(3):379-86. doi: 10.1080/15287398109530076.

Abstract

The Scientific Committee of the Food Safety Council recently recommended use of the gamma multihit model for risk assessment. Some practical problems arising from the use of this model are presented. In some instances the model produces what appear to be unreasonably high "safe dose" estimates. In other instances the estimates appear unrealistically low. Neither the original "standard" nor the "conservative" confidence limits seem adequate for practical application. The assumptions leading to the use of Abbott's correction are difficult to verify, but have a great effect on safe dose estimates. Indeed, the introduction of as little as 1% additive background into the gamma multihit model leads to safe dose estimates closer to those produced by the Armitage-Doll model than to those of the pure gamma multihit model.

摘要

食品安全委员会科学委员会最近建议使用伽马多重击中模型进行风险评估。文中介绍了使用该模型时出现的一些实际问题。在某些情况下,该模型得出的“安全剂量”估计值似乎高得不合理。在其他情况下,估计值又低得不符合实际。无论是原始的“标准”置信限还是“保守”置信限,在实际应用中似乎都不够充分。导致使用阿博特校正的假设难以验证,但对安全剂量估计有很大影响。实际上,在伽马多重击中模型中引入低至1%的附加背景,会使安全剂量估计值更接近阿米蒂奇-多尔模型得出的值,而不是纯伽马多重击中模型的值。

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