Schroeder E C, Pittenger D B
Demography. 1983 May;20(2):235-48.
Population projections are often required for many geographical areas, and must be prepared with maximal computer and minimal analytical effort. At the same time, realistic age detail forecasts require a flexible means of treating age-specific net migration. This report presents a migration projection technique compatible with these constraints. A simplified version of Pittenger's model is used, where future migration patterns are automatically assigned from characteristics of historical patterns. A comparative test of age pattern accuracy for 1970-1980 indicates that this technique is superior to the commonly used plus-minus adjustment to historical rates.
许多地理区域常常需要进行人口预测，而且必须在计算机使用最大化、分析工作量最小化的情况下完成。与此同时，符合实际情况的详细年龄预测需要一种灵活的方法来处理特定年龄的净迁移。本报告提出了一种符合这些限制条件的迁移预测技术。使用了皮滕杰模型的简化版本，即根据历史模式的特征自动确定未来的迁移模式。对1970 - 1980年年龄模式准确性的比较测试表明，该技术优于常用的对历史比率进行正负调整的方法。
