Born D O
J Dent Educ. 1981 Jun;45(6):362-73.
This paper explores the history of forecasting in dentistry and then focuses on several major forecasting techniques, briefly examining the basic assumptions, data requirements, and strengths and weaknesses of each. In discussing the issues involved in forecasting, the paper isolates three perspectives held by forecasters; health status, social need, and economic. Each approach defines the critical concept of "adequate supply" in a different way. Other issues addressed include: who should engage in forecasting; what methods should be employed; is it worth the effort to forecast requirements for dental specialists; should forecasting be done for small areas; and what is the "political" reality of forecasting.
本文探讨了牙科领域预测的历史，然后重点介绍了几种主要的预测技术，简要审视了每种技术的基本假设、数据要求以及优缺点。在讨论预测所涉及的问题时，本文梳理了预测者所持的三种观点：健康状况、社会需求和经济。每种方法对“充足供应”这一关键概念的定义各不相同。文中还探讨了其他问题，包括：谁应该进行预测；应采用何种方法；预测牙科专科医生的需求是否值得；是否应为小区域进行预测；以及预测的“政治”现实是什么。
