[Factors of early prognosis in medically treated haemorrhages of upper gastrointestinal tract in cirrhotic patients. Statistical study (author's transl)].

In order to define immediate criteria of prognosis for patients with cirrhosis, hospitalized in emergency for upper gastrointestinal tract haemorrhage, 164 cases of haemorrhages medically treated were reviewed. A prognostic study of each variant points to the clinical endoscopic and biological data connected with death. That study illustrates the prognostic value of traditional data. Patients who died within the first 30 days had a significantly higher incidence of hepatic encephalopathy, hematemesis, ascites, low blood pressure, bleeding oesophageal varices during endoscopy,. hypoprothrombinemia, hyperbilirubinemia. Those who survived had a significantly higher incidence of aspirin intake, numerous haemorrhages, good state of health, non bleeding peptic ulcer. Several series of multivariant analysis : multiple regression and linear discrimination, differing from one another in variates were done. They have allowed identification of 11 variables used in establishing a prognostic index. In the series, it gives an 87% probability of correct differentiation. Such an index allows an objective estimate of the value and limits of a group of patients in which the efficiency of other treatments could be tested in controlled trials.