Fortney J A, Whitehorne E W
Am J Obstet Gynecol. 1982 Jul 1;143(5):501-8. doi: 10.1016/0002-9378(82)90537-3.
Presented is a scheme by which an index of high-risk pregnancy can be evaluated. The proposed scheme is applied to a risk index developed for the purpose of illustration. The usefulness of risk indices (or any other predictive measure) can be judged in clear statistical terms. The illustrative model developed here behaves similarly with each of the two sets of data on which it is tested, except to the extent that it is influenced by the incidence in the test population of the outcome to be predicted. The conclusion reached is that unreasonable demands are made of high-risk indices, that no index can satisfy all requirements. However, if the requirements are reasonably stated in advance, indices of high-risk pregnancy can be extremely useful.
本文提出了一种可用于评估高危妊娠指数的方案。所提出的方案应用于为说明目的而制定的风险指数。风险指数（或任何其他预测指标）的有用性可以用明确的统计术语来判断。这里开发的说明性模型在用于测试它的两组数据中的每一组上表现相似，但在一定程度上会受到测试人群中待预测结果发生率的影响。得出的结论是，对高危指数提出了不合理的要求，没有一个指数能满足所有要求。然而，如果事先合理地说明要求，高危妊娠指数可能会非常有用。
