Bundey S
J Med Genet. 1978 Aug;15(4):249-53. doi: 10.1136/jmg.15.4.249.
Pedigrees of Duchenne muscular dystrophy were sent to 32 geneticists in the United Kingdom, asking for their calculations for genetic risks for female relatives. Eighteen participated, of whom only 7 gave correct answers for all pedigrees. The method most used for calculations (the 'Bayesian' method) was most liable to errors in new situations. An alternative, simpler method is presented.
杜兴氏肌营养不良症的系谱被发送给英国的32位遗传学家,要求他们计算女性亲属的遗传风险。18人参与了,其中只有7人对所有系谱都给出了正确答案。计算中最常用的方法(“贝叶斯”方法)在新情况下最容易出错。本文提出了一种替代的、更简单的方法。