[Prediction of labor onset and difficulty by the multivariate analysis (author's transl)].

Based on the multivariate analysis, we analysed the weekly change of the antepartum cervical ripe (consistency, effacement, dilatation, position) and the station, then predict the labor onset and difficulty retrospectively. 1) According to longterm observation of the internal examination of 210 primipara, in third trimester, the ripe type increased, and the unripe type decreased are found. Because of the intermediate type increased and unmovable in incidence relatively, so based on the former scoring method of mere addition of scores, it appears ineffective to predict the labor onset. 2) We studied primipara 385 and multipara 434 from 6 weeks before labor. Based on the multiple regression analysis, we could predict the labor onset. The predict value is higher in multipara than primipara, on the primipara, 78.2% antepartum 6 weeks, 82.2% 4 weeks, 92.6% 2 weeks, and on the multipara 84.6%, 82.2%, 96.2% respectively. 3) Based on the method of Mahalanobis' generalized distance, we could predict the labor difficulty in the primipara and multipara. Accuracy of abnormal prediction are 77.1% at 4 weeks formula, 77.2% at 2 weeks formula on primipara; 69.0%, 69.2% respectively on multipara. Accuracy of normal prediction 53.3%, 56.9% on primipara; 30.9% (4 weeks formula) on multipara are found. The abnormal prediction is better than the normal prediction. This method can early predict the labor onset and difficulty than the former scoring method of mere additional scores.