Diehl A K, Morris M D, Mannis S A
South Med J. 1981 Jun;74(6):709-12. doi: 10.1097/00007611-198106000-00020.
Hospital emergency rooms frequently provide routine health care to inner-city residents. Operating costs for such "walk-in" services might be reduced if staffing levels could be tailored to patient flow. To determine how calendar and meteorological factors affect attendance, we matched the daily visit records of a large ambulatory care center with concurrent calendar and weather data. Stepwise regression analysis resulted in a predictive equation that allows the projection of future attendance. In our facility, patient flow peaked on Monday and declined steadily during the remainder of the week. Fewer visits occurred during autumn and winter than during summer months. Higher temperatures were associated with more visits and daytime rainfall and glaze with fewer, once calendar variables were accounted for. The prediction equation has its greatest usefulness in projecting trends in walk-in attendance. Staffing levels can be adjusted to the predicted patient flow, allowing more cost-efficient operation.
医院急诊室经常为市中心居民提供常规医疗服务。如果人员配备水平能够根据患者流量进行调整，那么此类“无需预约”服务的运营成本可能会降低。为了确定日历和气象因素如何影响就诊人数，我们将一家大型门诊护理中心的每日就诊记录与同期的日历和天气数据进行了匹配。逐步回归分析得出了一个预测方程，可用于预测未来的就诊人数。在我们的机构中，患者流量在周一达到峰值，在本周其余时间稳步下降。秋季和冬季的就诊人数少于夏季。在考虑日历变量后，较高的温度与更多的就诊人数相关，而白天降雨和结冰则与较少的就诊人数相关。该预测方程在预测无需预约就诊人数的趋势方面具有最大的用处。人员配备水平可以根据预测的患者流量进行调整，从而实现更具成本效益的运营。
