Cullis J G, Foster D P, Frost C E
Rev Epidemiol Sante Publique. 1981;29(2):155-66.
Many commentators have noted the interrelation of demand and supply of hospital beds and have suggested that an increase in the supply of hospital beds tends to generate additional demand either in the form of more patients admitted or patients treated for longer periods of time or some combination of the two. We can report that the bed use rate can be predicted more accurately in terms of the five-seventh rule, that is if a National Health Service bed is made available for an additional week, then for five out of seven days it will be occupied. This rule was found to apply at both regional and district level. Variation in admission rates was also investigated and it was found that a large proportion of the observed variation could be explained in terms of one variable--bed supply. In view of the Resource Allocation Working Party's proposals, the relationship between the overall standardized mortality ratio and bed supply, admissions rate and bed use rate was investigated. No significant effect, however, was discovered. In other words, it is bed supply which strongly influences the demand for hospital care and not the overall standardized mortality ratio.
许多评论家都指出了医院病床供需之间的相互关系，并提出增加医院病床供应往往会产生额外需求，这种需求要么表现为收治更多患者，要么表现为患者接受更长时间的治疗，或者是两者的某种结合。我们可以报告，根据七分之五规则可以更准确地预测病床使用率，也就是说，如果国民医疗服务体系的一张病床多提供一周时间，那么在这七天中有五天会被占用。研究发现这条规则在地区和行政区层面都适用。我们还调查了住院率的变化情况，发现观察到的大部分变化可以用一个变量——病床供应来解释。鉴于资源分配工作小组的提议，我们研究了总体标准化死亡率与病床供应、住院率和病床使用率之间的关系。然而，未发现显著影响。换句话说，强烈影响医院护理需求的是病床供应，而不是总体标准化死亡率。
