[Critical analysis of methods establishing prognosis of aplastic anemia (author's transl)].

Three methods for evaluating short-term prognosis in patients with aplastic anemia have been evaluated in 147 adults and 46 children: Camitta's three qualitative parameters index [3], that of Lynch et al. [14], and Najean and Peckin's [16] multiparametric quantitative indices. All of them are similar, as far as sensitivity if concerned, i.e. the percentage of early deaths. In contrast, the first two have low specificity, i.e., they include a large number of patients in the high risk group who could survive and improve an androgen and maintenance therapy. The best method, however, correctly classifies only 75% of the patients, which suggests that some improvement is needed in the prognostic investigation.