Hogan D P, Frenzen P D
Demography. 1981 Nov;18(4):597-614.
A number of different causal mechanisms have been proposed to explain the onset of fertility declines in populations with previously uncontrolled fertility, but they have never been adequately tested. The present study identifies and tests five antecedents to family limitation practices in a sample of 755 currently married couples resident in rural Northern Thailand. The log-linear multiple regression models estimated indicate that couples in more developed districts, more modern couples, couples in which wives have more equal roles, couples believing that intergenerational wealth transfers favor children rather than their parents, and more wealthy couples, were all significantly more likely to be early adopters of contraception. Local development levels appeared to have the greatest net effects on the timing of adoption of fertility control. In addition, couples in areas where contraceptive services were more readily available were also significantly more likely to be contraceptive innovators, net of these five variables.
人们提出了许多不同的因果机制来解释在先前生育率不受控制的人群中生育率下降的开始，但这些机制从未得到充分检验。本研究在居住于泰国北部农村的755对已婚夫妇样本中，识别并检验了计划生育行为的五个先行因素。所估计的对数线性多元回归模型表明，处于较发达地区的夫妇、更现代的夫妇、妻子角色更平等的夫妇、认为代际财富转移有利于子女而非父母的夫妇以及更富有的夫妇，都显著更有可能成为避孕措施的早期采用者。当地发展水平似乎对采用生育控制措施的时间影响最大。此外，在排除这五个变量的影响后，避孕服务更容易获得地区的夫妇也显著更有可能成为避孕创新者。
