Carter R L, Blight B J
Biometrics. 1981 Dec;37(4):743-51.
Under the assumptions of independent normally distributed and sequentially observed responses, a Bayesian rule for detecting a change from a constant mean response is derived. It is known that both basal body temperature (BBT) and preovulatory estrogen values undergo such a change in mean value at some random time during the menstrual cycle. The Bayesian rule is applied to estrogen to predict ovulation and to BBT to detect ovulation. Data from an aggregate of women are used to obtain prior information about the change-points and the parameters that define the changes in estrogen and BBT. A method is proposed by which the accumulation of information for a specific women can be incorporated into the aggregate prior information.
在独立正态分布且顺序观测响应的假设下，推导了一种用于检测均值从常数发生变化的贝叶斯规则。已知基础体温（BBT）和排卵前雌激素值在月经周期的某个随机时间点均值都会发生这样的变化。该贝叶斯规则应用于雌激素以预测排卵，应用于基础体温以检测排卵。使用来自一组女性的数据来获取关于变化点以及定义雌激素和基础体温变化的参数的先验信息。提出了一种方法，通过该方法可以将特定女性的信息积累纳入总体先验信息中。
