Carter R L, Abrams R M, Moghissi K S
Gynecol Obstet Invest. 1982;13(4):226-34. doi: 10.1159/000299523.
17 beta-Estradiol (E2), basal body temperature (BBT) and luteinizing hormone (LH), were measured in normally menstruating women. The preovulatory E2 observations were characterized by variations about a constant level during the preovula-peak. The BBT observations typically varied about a constant level during the preovulatory phase then about a higher constant level during the postovulatory phase. The change points in E2 and BBT were detected using a Bayesian detection rule and a midcycle 'fertile period' was marked off. The midcycle 'fertile periods' appear to bracket the ovulation event and the method shows promise as a natural family planning method. Several practical limitations of the method are discussed.
对月经正常的女性测量了17β-雌二醇（E2）、基础体温（BBT）和促黄体生成素（LH）。排卵前E2的观察结果表现为在排卵前峰值期间围绕一个恒定水平波动。BBT的观察结果通常在排卵前期围绕一个恒定水平变化，然后在排卵后期围绕一个更高的恒定水平变化。使用贝叶斯检测规则检测E2和BBT的变化点，并标记出月经周期中期的“易孕期”。月经周期中期的“易孕期”似乎包围了排卵事件，该方法有望成为一种自然计划生育方法。文中讨论了该方法的几个实际局限性。
