Ryder N B
Demography. 1978 Nov;15(4):433-58.
Data from the 1965 and 1970 National Fertility Studies are used to produce classifications of births and exposure to births by planning status for real and synthetic marriage cohorts, covering the experience of the 1940s, 1950s, and 1960s. Indices of reproductive input (three ends, three means, and three conditions) and of conventional reproductive output (such as the mean number of unintended births) are derived from these observations. The outputs are expressed as deterministic equations in terms of the inputs; this permits the study of the structure of fertility determination. The model provides a parsimonious description of the sources of change in fertility and an instrument of possible use in policy.
1965年和1970年全国生育研究的数据被用于对实际和模拟婚姻队列按生育计划状态进行出生分类及出生暴露分类，涵盖了20世纪40年代、50年代和60年代的情况。生殖投入指标（三个端点、三个均值和三个条件）以及传统生殖产出指标（如意外生育的平均数量）均源自这些观察结果。产出以输入量表示为确定性方程；这使得对生育决定结构的研究成为可能。该模型对生育率变化的来源进行了简洁描述，并提供了一种可能用于政策制定的工具。
