Kraly E P, Norris D A
Demography. 1978 Nov;15(4):549-57.
An evaluation of the Brass childhood mortality estimates under conditions of declining mortality shows them to overestimate current mortality. Error increases as the rate of mortality decline increases, as the childhood age up to which cumulative mortality is being estimated increases, and as age at onset of childbearing decreases. We use the results to develop a method for correcting the Brass estimates for the effects of quasistability. The method requires an estimate of the rate of mortality decline within the population in addition to information on the pattern of childbearing in the population.
在死亡率下降的情况下对布拉斯儿童死亡率估计值进行的评估表明，这些估计值高估了当前的死亡率。随着死亡率下降速度加快、估计累积死亡率所涵盖的儿童年龄增加以及生育开始年龄降低，误差会增大。我们利用这些结果开发了一种方法，用于校正布拉斯估计值中准稳定性的影响。该方法除了需要有关人口生育模式的信息外，还需要估计人口中的死亡率下降速度。
