James W H
Andrologia. 1980 Jul-Aug;12(4):381-8. doi: 10.1111/j.1439-0272.1980.tb00650.x.
Claims that there has been a recent secular decline in splerm counts have been disputed. Protaglonists on both sides of the discussion have based their arguments on data from a few large samples at different times and (mostly) in different places. It is not disputed that the differences between the mean counts in the various samples are statistically significant: what is a tissue is whether a secular decline is responsible. The present not adops a different approach to the problem: an attempt has been made to locate representative data on mean sperm counts of unselected men over the last 45 years. Twenty-nine such means are cited here. There can be no reasonable doubt that these reported mean sperm counts show a decline with time of publication, at least since 1960. It is not easy to see what artifact - other than a real secular trend - might responsible. Accordingly it is concluded that - at least in some places - it seems likely that a secular decline has occurred.
关于精子数量近期出现长期下降的说法存在争议。讨论双方的支持者都依据了不同时期(大多是不同地点)少数几个大样本的数据来展开论证。各样本平均数量之间的差异具有统计学意义,这一点并无争议:存在争议的是长期下降是否是导致这种差异的原因。本文采用了一种不同的方法来处理这个问题:试图找到过去45年中未经过挑选的男性平均精子数量的代表性数据。这里引用了29个这样的平均值。至少自1960年以来,这些报告的平均精子数量随发表时间呈现下降趋势,这一点毋庸置疑。除了真实的长期趋势外,很难看出还有什么人为因素可能导致这种情况。因此得出结论:至少在某些地方,似乎很可能已经出现了长期下降。