Gwatkin D R
Am J Public Health. 1980 Dec;70(12):1286-9. doi: 10.2105/ajph.70.12.1286.
Estimates concerning the annual number of infant and child deaths in the world range from around 15 million to well over 30 million. Although infant and child mortality is difficult to measure with any precision, the range of uncertainty can be narrowed considerably through the application of standard demographic techniques to readily available population data. A set of estimates based on the most recent and authoritative data compilations points to a range of from 12-13 million to about 17-18 million infant and child deaths annually during the late 1970s, with an average of around 15 million. On the basis of what is known about mortality conditions of the world today, a figure much larger than the 17-18 million at the high end of this range would be extremely difficult to substantiate.
关于全球每年婴幼儿死亡人数的估计数,从约1500万到远超3000万不等。尽管很难精确测量婴幼儿死亡率,但通过将标准人口统计学方法应用于现有的人口数据,不确定性范围可大幅缩小。一组基于最新权威数据汇编的估计数表明,在20世纪70年代后期,每年的婴幼儿死亡人数在1200万至1300万到约1700万至1800万之间,平均约为1500万。基于当今世界已知的死亡率情况,要证实一个远高于此范围上限1700万至1800万的数字将极为困难。