Mosher W D
Demography. 1980 Nov;17(4):395-412.
An important study by Friedlander investigated some of the effects of different demographic responses on national demographic transitions. England and Sweden were advanced as cases that approximated the suggested hypothetical models of transitions. His argument implied that the rural population of a country (in this case Sweden) experiencing mortality decline but little industrialization would reduce its fertility rates if our-migration from agricultural areas were not possible. This present study, using more complete data and better measures, concludes that this did not occur in Sweden--it did not conform to Friedlander's hypothesized model. Because the potential implications of these findings could be profound and wide-ranging, there is a need for more studies of individual countries using better data and giving more careful attention to Davis's theory on which the Friedlander hypothesis is based.
弗里德兰德的一项重要研究探讨了不同人口结构变化对国家人口转变的一些影响。英国和瑞典被作为近似于所提出的假设转变模型的案例。他的论点表明,如果一个国家(在这种情况下是瑞典)农村人口经历死亡率下降但工业化程度很低,且无法从农业地区向外迁移,其生育率将会降低。本研究使用了更完整的数据和更好的衡量方法,得出的结论是瑞典并未出现这种情况——它不符合弗里德兰德的假设模型。由于这些发现的潜在影响可能是深远且广泛的,因此有必要对各个国家进行更多研究,使用更好的数据,并更加仔细地关注弗里德兰德假设所基于的戴维斯理论。