Spieksma F T
Allergy. 1980 Oct;35(7):593-603. doi: 10.1111/j.1398-9995.1980.tb01810.x.
The literature on local pollen counts and their significance for hay fever is reviewed and a system for forecasting hay fever is described. Such forecasts have been broadcast by radio in The Netherlands since 1977. The hay fever forecast takes the form of a prognosis (in terms of three grades) of the influence of the expected whether situation on tomorrow's course of the subjective complaints of hay fever sufferers. It is not a forecast of the pollen count. When the subjective complaints of about 150 hay fever patients were used as reference for evaluation, the forecasts proved to have been correct in 72, 85, and 88% of the cases in 1977, 1978, and 1979, respectively. The practical usefulness and the limitations of the system are briefly discussed, with emphasis on the principle that not the local pollen count but the weather should be taken as the main determinative factor for the expected subjective experiences in a group of hay fever sufferers in a certain region.
本文回顾了关于当地花粉计数及其对花粉热意义的文献，并描述了一种花粉热预测系统。自1977年以来，荷兰通过广播播报此类预测。花粉热预测采用预后（分为三个等级）的形式，即预期天气状况对花粉热患者次日主观症状发展的影响。它不是花粉计数的预测。以约150名花粉热患者的主观症状作为评估参考时，1977年、1978年和1979年的预测准确率分别为72%、85%和88%。本文简要讨论了该系统的实际用途和局限性，重点强调了一个原则，即对于某一地区一群花粉热患者的预期主观体验而言，主要决定因素不是当地花粉计数，而是天气。
