Woolhouse M E
Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, UK.
Vaccine. 1995 Aug;13(12):1045-50. doi: 10.1016/0264-410x(95)00083-d.
The potential outcomes of a Phase II schistosomiasis vaccine trial are explored using mathematical models which assume some natural immunity and a vaccine providing partial protection for a limited time. Analyses suggest that vaccination may have only a limited impact on life-long cumulative worm burdens and may lead to increased susceptibility and higher worm burdens at some ages, a "rebound" effect which results reduced opportunity to acquire natural immunity. There is a trade-off between the degree and duration of vaccine-induced protection; long-lived vaccines may be preferable to vaccines giving greater protection but for a shorter time.
利用数学模型探讨了二期血吸虫病疫苗试验的潜在结果，这些模型假定存在一定的自然免疫力以及一种能在有限时间内提供部分保护的疫苗。分析表明，接种疫苗可能仅对终生累积虫负荷产生有限影响，并且可能导致某些年龄段的易感性增加和虫负荷升高，即一种“反弹”效应，这会减少获得自然免疫力的机会。在疫苗诱导的保护程度和持续时间之间存在权衡；长效疫苗可能比提供更强但持续时间更短保护的疫苗更可取。
