A stochastic model for multistage tumorigenesis in developing and adult mice.

A stochastic process model for one-, two-, and three-stage malignant transformation has been developed for embryonic and adult mice. The model has been used to study the influence of mutation rate, number of stages required for transformation, and number of stem cells at risk on the kinetics of spontaneous appearance of malignant tumors. As expected, tumors appeared earlier with fewer required mutational stages, higher mutation rate, and greater number of stem cells at risk. However, a notable observation was that tumor latency was more strongly influenced by number of stages and by stem cell number at lower mutation rates than at higher rates. This implies that tumor latency may be a less useful observation when the spontaneous mutation rate is high. In the future, the model will be applied to analysis of tumorigenesis experiments in transgenic mice with p53 genetic abnormalities, subjected to irradiation or chemical tumorigenesis at different stages of development.