Close L G, Miller R H
Department of Otolaryngology/Head and Neck Surgery, College of Physicians and Surgeons of Columbia University, New York, NY 10032, USA.
Laryngoscope. 1995 Oct;105(10):1081-5. doi: 10.1288/00005537-199510000-00014.
The head and neck surgery workforce in the United States over the next 20 years is of significant interest to physicians, patients, and others. Using election to fellowship in the American Society for Head and Neck Surgery or the Society of Head and Neck Surgeons, or both, as the criteria for designation as a head and neck surgeon, a mathematical model was designed to project the growth of the head and neck surgery workforce through the year 2014. The current combined active membership of the two societies was analyzed to determine the impact of age distribution on this model. The paradigm assumes 30 new head and neck surgeons each year and includes the appropriate mortality rate for each cohort. Based on this model, the total number of head and neck surgeons should decrease slightly from 1109 in the year 1994 to 1028 in the year 2014. A steady-state supply of head and neck surgeons is therefore predicted.
未来20年美国头颈外科医生队伍的情况受到医生、患者及其他人士的高度关注。以入选美国头颈外科学会或头颈外科医师学会（或两者兼具）的专科培训作为认定头颈外科医生的标准，设计了一个数学模型来预测截至2014年头颈外科医生队伍的增长情况。对这两个学会目前的联合活跃会员进行了分析，以确定年龄分布对该模型的影响。该范例假设每年有30名新的头颈外科医生，并纳入了每个队列的适当死亡率。基于此模型，头颈外科医生总数预计将从1994年的1109人略有下降至2014年的1028人。因此，预计头颈外科医生的供应将达到稳定状态。
