Head and neck surgery workforce in the year 2014.

The head and neck surgery workforce in the United States over the next 20 years is of significant interest to physicians, patients, and others. Using election to fellowship in the American Society for Head and Neck Surgery or the Society of Head and Neck Surgeons, or both, as the criteria for designation as a head and neck surgeon, a mathematical model was designed to project the growth of the head and neck surgery workforce through the year 2014. The current combined active membership of the two societies was analyzed to determine the impact of age distribution on this model. The paradigm assumes 30 new head and neck surgeons each year and includes the appropriate mortality rate for each cohort. Based on this model, the total number of head and neck surgeons should decrease slightly from 1109 in the year 1994 to 1028 in the year 2014. A steady-state supply of head and neck surgeons is therefore predicted.