[Trend and prediction of cancer mortality in Beijing, China, during 1980-2001].

Mortality data gathered through registration system were analyzed systematically to predict the trend of cancer mortality. A grey-system model was established to forecast the epidemic trend for cancer mortality of Beijing in 2001. In result, the mortality of cancer in Beijing will increase annually upto 2001. The composition of various malignant tumer will charge notably. Rapid increase will occure in lung cancer. Liver cancer and colon-rectal cancer will aslo increase. Cancers of esophagus and cervix uteri will steadly decline. Stomach cancer begin to decrease. These information on the change of cancer mortality will provide scientific reference for the study of cancer prevention and control in Beijing.