Griffith J R, Wellman B T
Med Care. 1979 Mar;17(3):293-303. doi: 10.1097/00005650-197903000-00007.
A university-based hospital consulting group reviewed six studies of Michigan hospitals retrospectively in 1975. The studies represented all those done between 1967 and 1971 requiring forecasts of acute bed supply and service needs. The original studies developed forecasts using empirical studies of patient origin and rigorously prepared authoritative forecasts of county populations. The 1975 review compared forecasts of population, service population, and bed need against current values and also interviewed clients to assess retrospective satisfaction with the recommendations. Although the consultants strove steadily to minimize the bed supply and base population forecasts were accurate, the studies overestimated bed needs. Further, the clients were often dissatisfied with the original recommendations, and frequently acted to exceed them. Comparing the 1975 actual with what would now be recommended by the consultant indicates that the "error" cost the communities about $50 per person per year.
1975年，一个大学附属医院咨询小组对密歇根州的医院进行了六项回顾性研究。这些研究涵盖了1967年至1971年间所有关于急性病床供应和服务需求预测的研究。最初的研究通过对患者来源的实证研究以及精心编制的县人口权威预测来制定预测。1975年的回顾将人口、服务人口和床位需求的预测与当前值进行了比较，并采访了客户以评估对这些建议的回顾性满意度。尽管顾问们不断努力将病床供应降至最低，且基础人口预测准确，但这些研究仍高估了床位需求。此外，客户常常对最初的建议不满意，并且经常采取行动超出这些建议。将1975年的实际情况与顾问现在会建议的情况进行比较表明，这种“误差”使社区每人每年花费约50美元。
