The applicability of Collins' Law to childhood brain tumors and its usefulness as a predictor of survival.

In 1955, Collins made the observation that tumor recurrence in children with Wilms' tumor was correlated with the child's age plus 9 months. This concept of a period of risk for recurrence was later applied to a variety of tumors in children and became known as Collins' Law (CL). The law has been a successful predictor of survival for some children with neural tumors within the central nervous system and a poor predictor for others. We tested Collins' concept of a period of risk for recurrence and extended it to survival for 14 childhood neural tumors described in the Childhood Brain Tumor Consortium (CBTC) database. The CBTC data describe clinical, surgical, and histological details (over a 49-year period in 10 institutions) from 3921 patients under the age of 21 years at the time of their first surgical procedure for a brain tumor. CL was considered to be a good predictor of survival if fewer than 10% of patients who die survive beyond the expiration of the period of risk for that child. We found that CL applied to tumors such as anaplastic astrocytoma, glioblastoma, pineoblastoma, medulloblastoma or "primitive neuroectodermal tumor," teratoma, and germinoma, as well as ependymoma, papilloma, and tumors that could not be classified; it had no predictive value in craniopharyngioma, oligodendroglioma, or plain, fibrillary, pilocytic, or protoplasmic astrocytoma. We had sufficient follow-up data to determine adherence to CL when the child's age at diagnosis was less than 8 years; it is likely that CL applies to older children with these tumors, but we did not have the data to show this unequivocally.