Feinberg M S, Boyko V, Goldbourt U, Reicher-Reiss H, Mandelzweig L, Zion M, Kaplinsky E, Behar S
Neufield Cardiac Research Institute, Chaim Sheba Medical Center, Tel Hashomer, Isreal.
Int J Cardiol. 1995 Jan 27;48(1):31-8. doi: 10.1016/0167-5273(94)02162-c.
A prognostic index based on admission characteristics of patients with inferior acute myocardial infarction was developed to predict mortality and other major complications during hospitalization. The study sample included 1841 consecutive patients with a first inferior wall acute myocardial infarction, hospitalized in 13 out of 21 operating coronary care units in Israel. Age, angina in the past, congestive heart failure and blood glucose level > 180 mg/dl were independently associated with higher in-hospital mortality and morbidity. The prognostic weights of these risk factors were determined in a study group which comprised two thirds of the patients (n = 1210) who were randomly selected from the 1841 participants. A prognostic score (range, 0-15) was calculated as the sum of the prognostic weights of the above four risk factors for each patient. These scores were determined in both the study group and in a validation group (the remaining one third of the patients, n = 592). In-hospital mortality in the study group ranged from no death for 102 patients with a prognostic score of 0, to a 37% mortality rate in 106 patients whose prognostic score was > 8. Accordingly, the study group was divided into groups of low-risk (score 0-5), intermediate-risk (score 6-8) and high-risk (score > 8), with in-hospital mortality of 3, 13 and 37%, respectively. In-hospital mortality among patients in the validation group determined to be at low-, intermediate- and high-risk was 3, 13 and 44%, respectively.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)
基于下壁急性心肌梗死患者入院特征开发了一种预后指数，以预测住院期间的死亡率和其他主要并发症。研究样本包括1841例首次发生下壁急性心肌梗死的连续患者，这些患者在以色列21个冠心病监护病房中的13个接受治疗。年龄、既往心绞痛、充血性心力衰竭以及血糖水平>180 mg/dl与较高的住院死亡率和发病率独立相关。这些危险因素的预后权重在一个研究组中确定，该研究组由从1841名参与者中随机选取的三分之二患者（n = 1210）组成。为每位患者计算一个预后评分（范围为0 - 15），即上述四个危险因素的预后权重之和。这些评分在研究组和验证组（其余三分之一患者，n = 592）中均进行了确定。研究组的住院死亡率范围从预后评分为0的102例患者无死亡，到预后评分>8的106例患者中37%的死亡率。因此，研究组被分为低风险组（评分0 - 5）、中风险组（评分6 - 8）和高风险组（评分>8），住院死亡率分别为3%、13%和37%。验证组中被确定为低、中、高风险的患者住院死亡率分别为3%、13%和44%。（摘要截短于250字）
