Burkhalter B R, Miller R I, Silva L, Burleigh E
BASICS Project, Academy for Educational Development, Washington, D.C., USA.
Bull Pan Am Health Organ. 1995 Mar;29(1):1-24.
All available estimates of rates of infant mortality, vaccination coverage (for BCG, DPT 3, polio 3, measles, and tetanus toxoid), and ORS use in Guatemala in the 1980s were identified and investigated. A large number of sources and estimates were found. Large discrepancies were also found between the estimates for a given indicator, even when the estimates were reported for the same year by the same source. For instance, reports for 1985 yielded 10 different infant mortality estimates ranging from 56.0 to 79.8 deaths per 1,000 live births; vaccination coverage estimates ranging from 30% to 60.5% for BCG, 3.5% to 34.2% for DPT 3, 3.5% to 33.5% for polio 3, 11% to 58.2% for measles, and 1% to 8.2% for tetanus toxoid; and estimated use rates of oral rehydration solution ranging from 3.5% to 7.2%. In this same vein, three Guatemalan Ministry of Health estimates of infant deaths per 1,000 live births in 1984 ranged from 52.4 to 79.8; four UNICEF estimates for 1985 ranged from 65 to 79.8; and three USAID estimates for 1987 ranged from 59 to 72. The many reasons found for this diversity point to significant problems influencing the reliability of current data.
我们找出并研究了20世纪80年代危地马拉所有关于婴儿死亡率、疫苗接种覆盖率（卡介苗、三联疫苗、三价脊髓灰质炎疫苗、麻疹疫苗和破伤风类毒素）以及口服补液盐使用率的现有估计数据。发现了大量的数据源和估计数据。即使是同一来源在同一年报告的给定指标的估计数据之间也存在很大差异。例如，1985年的报告给出了10个不同的婴儿死亡率估计值，每1000例活产婴儿的死亡数从56.0到79.8不等；卡介苗的疫苗接种覆盖率估计值从30%到60.5%，三联疫苗从3.5%到34.2%，三价脊髓灰质炎疫苗从3.5%到33.5%，麻疹疫苗从11%到58.2%，破伤风类毒素从1%到8.2%；口服补液盐的估计使用率从3.5%到7.2%。同样，危地马拉卫生部对1984年每1000例活产婴儿死亡数的三次估计值在52.4到79.8之间；联合国儿童基金会对1985年的四次估计值在65到79.8之间；美国国际开发署对1987年的三次估计值在59到72之间。造成这种差异的诸多原因表明，影响当前数据可靠性的问题十分严重。
