Restrepo H E, Rozental M
Division of Health Promotion & Protection, Pan American Health Organization, Washington, DC 20037-2895.
Soc Sci Med. 1994 Nov;39(9):1323-38. doi: 10.1016/0277-9536(94)90364-6.
Demographic trends regarding the issue of aging underscore the fact that both current situations and future trends directly concerns all of us. Aging is the reality for the future world. The pace at which demographic transition develops varies among countries and regions of the world, but most of the developed and developing countries will be challenged by increasing numbers of dependent individuals. This is particularly critical in the less-developed countries where older populations will increase substantially faster. It is expected that by the year 2000, Latin America and the Caribbean will have 41 million elderly, 7.2% of the total population. By 2025 this percentage will increase to 10.8%. The stunning growth of the elderly demands special attention of policy and decision-makers. The total dependency ratio will decrease in the Americas between 1980 and 2025 due to a marked decrease in the fertility rate, whereas old age dependency ratios will show a marked increase in all countries except Haiti and Surinam. Most of the elderly populations, predominantly women, are living in urban centers. This fact is one of the most important characteristic of the socioeconomic picture in Latin American and Caribbean countries: urbanization with poverty. Women are bearing mainly the burden. It is obvious that, from a cultural perspective, the social impact of aging populations is a complex issue. The wide range of possible future programs will be the result of differences and similarities in social values, relationships, and dynamics within each society. It is important to recognize that since modern industrialized societies live in a culture emphasizing competition for economic wealth, that values economic over social productivity, and where inequities based on class, gender, and race are accepted, that these are the issues influencing the parameters of aging populations. Social policy development for the elderly needs to be critically examined in order for society to adapt to aging as well as for older populations to adapt to a charging society. The major political challenge is the need for redistributive policies. Developing countries must add new priorities to their scarce resources, for social programs for elderly, while still having to deal with the problems of their younger populations. Women issues are extremely important in considering social policies for elderly population. Feminization of poverty and ill-health during old age is a result of exacerbated risks for women across the life course. Appropriate care and support for this vulnerable group is a priority.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 400 WORDS)
当前形势和未来趋势都直接关乎我们所有人。老龄化是未来世界的现实。人口结构转变的发展速度在世界各国和各地区有所不同，但大多数发达国家和发展中国家都将面临受抚养人口增加的挑战。在欠发达国家，这一情况尤为严峻，那里老年人口的增长速度将快得多。预计到2000年，拉丁美洲和加勒比地区将有4100万老年人，占总人口的7.2%。到2025年，这一比例将增至10.8%。老年人口的惊人增长需要政策制定者和决策者给予特别关注。由于生育率显著下降，1980年至2025年间美洲的总抚养比将下降，而除海地和苏里南外，所有国家的老年抚养比都将显著上升。大多数老年人口，主要是女性，生活在城市中心。这一事实是拉丁美洲和加勒比国家社会经济状况最重要的特征之一：城市化与贫困并存。女性主要承担着负担。显然，从文化角度来看，老年人口的社会影响是一个复杂的问题。未来可能出现的各种方案将是每个社会的社会价值观、人际关系和动态方面的差异与相似之处的结果。必须认识到，由于现代工业化社会所处的文化强调对经济财富的竞争，重视经济生产力而非社会生产力，并且接受基于阶级、性别和种族的不平等，这些都是影响老年人口状况的因素。为了使社会适应老龄化以及老年人口适应不断变化的社会，需要对老年人的社会政策发展进行严格审视。主要的政治挑战是需要重新分配政策。发展中国家必须在其稀缺资源中为老年人的社会项目增添新的优先事项，同时仍要应对年轻人口的问题。在考虑老年人口的社会政策时，妇女问题极为重要。老年时期贫困和健康不佳的女性化是女性在整个生命过程中面临的风险加剧的结果。为这个弱势群体提供适当的照顾和支持是当务之急。（摘要截选至400字）
