Wierson M, Forehand R
Department of Psychology, Pomona College, Claremont, CA.
Behav Res Ther. 1995 Jan;33(1):63-7. doi: 10.1016/0005-7967(94)e0001-y.
Seventy-five male youths were evaluated while incarcerated in a juvenile facility in the state of Georgia. Twenty-one to 32 months following discharge, criminal files were examined for records of reincarceration. The recidivism rate was approximately one-third of the initial sample. Crime-related and mental health variables were entered into discriminant function analyses to determine models for predicting recidivism. For the total sample, earlier age at first arrest and higher severity of crime significantly discriminated recidivists from nonrecidivists. Presence of a substance abuse disorder appeared to be a positive prognostic indicator for nonrecidivism. Subsequently, separate sets of analyses were conducted by race, showing clearly that the results were qualified by race, and that differential processes may be operating for African-American vs Caucasian youth when considering recidivism.
75名男性青少年在佐治亚州的一家少年教养所被监禁期间接受了评估。出院后21至32个月，查阅犯罪档案以获取再次入狱的记录。累犯率约为初始样本的三分之一。将与犯罪和心理健康相关的变量纳入判别函数分析，以确定预测累犯的模型。对于整个样本，首次被捕时的年龄较小以及犯罪严重程度较高，可显著区分累犯和非累犯。存在物质滥用障碍似乎是预测非累犯的一个积极预后指标。随后，按种族进行了单独的分析，结果清楚地表明，结果因种族而异，在考虑累犯时，非裔美国青少年和白人青少年的情况可能存在不同的影响因素。
