A universal model of antibody prediction (MAP) of type 1 diabetes in children.

The majority of children who develop Type 1 diabetes under the age of 10-years-old show islet cell antibodies at levels of 40 or more units. Those who have lower levels (10- < 40) usually have co-existent insulin autoantibodies. Of these children 85% have these criteria. When these criteria were applied to large groups of similarly aged children who were either first degree relatives of a type 1 diabetic or had no such family history, 3.8% and 0.38% respectively showed these criteria. The observed sensitivity of these characteristics in identifying children who develop diabetes in the subsequent 5 years is 79% for both groups. The calculated expected incidence of disease in the subsequent 10 years for these two groups is 2.15% and 0.215% respectively. This model of autoantibody prediction of diabetes in children thus applies equally well in terms of sensitivity and specificity to those with and without a family history of diabetes.