Abeni D D, Brancato G, Perucci C A
Epidemiology Unit, Lazio Regional Health Authority, Rome, Italy.
Epidemiology. 1994 Jul;5(4):410-4. doi: 10.1097/00001648-199407000-00006.
Estimating and monitoring the total number of people infected with human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) is a critical public health objective. No single epidemiologic methodology yields completely reliable estimates. We used techniques originally designed to estimate the size of wildlife populations to complement estimates of the size of the population with HIV-1 infection in Lazio, Italy, during 1990 obtained from surveillance, surveys, and dynamic mathematical models. We used reports from four large testing sites to generate incomplete, partially overlapping lists of HIV-positive subjects. Log-linear models yielded estimated prevalences of 5.65 per 1,000 among males (95% confidence interval = 4.52-6.78) and 1.84 per 1,000 (95% confidence interval = 1.34-2.33) among females in the population age 15-64 years. This method provides a simple and inexpensive means of obtaining accurate estimates of the total number of HIV seropositives. It could be applied easily in all situations in which data from multiple sources are available.
估算和监测感染1型人类免疫缺陷病毒（HIV-1）的总人数是一项关键的公共卫生目标。没有单一的流行病学方法能得出完全可靠的估计值。我们使用最初设计用于估算野生动物种群规模的技术，以补充通过监测、调查和动态数学模型获得的1990年意大利拉齐奥地区感染HIV-1的人群规模估计值。我们利用四个大型检测点的报告生成了HIV阳性受试者的不完整、部分重叠的名单。对数线性模型得出15至64岁人群中男性的估计患病率为每1000人中有5.65例（95%置信区间=4.52-6.78），女性为每1000人中有1.84例（95%置信区间=1.34-2.33）。该方法提供了一种简单且廉价的手段来准确估算HIV血清阳性者的总数。它可以很容易地应用于所有可获得多个来源数据的情况。
