Gossop M, Strang J, Griffiths P, Powis B, Taylor C
Drug Transitions Study, National Addiction Centre, Maudsley Hospital, London.
Br J Psychiatry. 1994 May;164(5):676-9. doi: 10.1192/bjp.164.5.676.
This paper presents an approach to estimating the prevalence of cocaine use, based upon a new ratio estimation technique. This method can be applied to random samples of overlapping populations for which no sampling frames exist. When the ratio estimation method is applied to the two study samples (drawn from populations of people using cocaine and people using heroin) the ratio of cocaine users to heroin users (C/H) was 1.55, with a 95% confidence interval of +/- 0.48. Such estimates should be applied with caution. However, if used with reference to national estimates of about 75,000 heroin users, application of the present estimate suggests that there may be about 116,000 cocaine users in the UK.
本文介绍了一种基于新的比率估计技术来估算可卡因使用流行率的方法。该方法可应用于不存在抽样框架的重叠人群随机样本。当将比率估计方法应用于两个研究样本(分别从使用可卡因的人群和使用海洛因的人群中抽取)时,可卡因使用者与海洛因使用者的比率(C/H)为1.55,95%置信区间为±0.48。此类估计应谨慎使用。然而,如果参照全国约75000名海洛因使用者的估计数据,应用当前的估计结果表明,英国可能有约116000名可卡因使用者。