Knolle H
Division of Social and Preventive Medicine, University of Bern, Switzerland.
Subst Use Misuse. 1997 Aug;32(10):1349-68. doi: 10.3109/10826089709039382.
The Swiss registry of charges concerning illegal trade and consumption of narcotics offers the possibility of monitoring the incidence and prevalence of illegal drug use in Switzerland. Of course, the relation between the number of charges against users of illegal drugs and the number of users is unknown and may vary in time and space. This makes it difficult to estimate the prevalence of consumption from law enforcement data, but it does not hinder the estimation of incidence if the numbers of first and subsequent charges are known. This is demonstrated by employing a dynamic model with two compartments which represent the not yet charged and the charged users. In contrast to methods which rely on treatment admission data, the new method can detect changes of incidence without time lag. Prevalence estimates can be obtained if the charge frequency distribution is known, as it is for Switzerland from 1990 to 1994. A theoretical distribution is fitted to the data which are available for all illegal drugs as well as for heroin and/or cocaine. This leads to estimates of the populations of users of illegal drugs in general and of heroin and/or cocaine.
瑞士关于非法毒品交易和消费的指控登记处提供了监测瑞士非法药物使用发生率和流行率的可能性。当然，针对非法药物使用者的指控数量与使用者数量之间的关系尚不清楚，并且可能随时间和空间而变化。这使得从执法数据中估计消费流行率变得困难，但如果知道首次和后续指控的数量，就不妨碍对发生率进行估计。通过采用一个具有两个部分的动态模型来证明这一点，这两个部分分别代表尚未被指控的使用者和已被指控的使用者。与依赖治疗入院数据的方法不同，新方法可以即时检测发生率的变化。如果知道指控频率分布，就可以获得流行率估计值，瑞士1990年至1994年的情况就是如此。将一个理论分布拟合到所有非法药物以及海洛因和/或可卡因的可用数据上。这得出了一般非法药物使用者以及海洛因和/或可卡因使用者群体的估计值。
