Physician manpower reform: an analysis of the effects of the COGME Fourth Report on internal medicine residency positions. Council on Graduate Medical Education.

PURPOSE

To quantitate the impact of the recommendations contained in the Council on Graduate Medical Education (COGME) Fourth Report on the position distribution in internal medicine residency and fellowship programs and to recommend alternative position allocations for discussion.

DATA SOURCES

The COGME Fourth Report, the National Study of Internal Medicine Manpower, and the American Medical Association Annual Survey of Graduate Medical Education.

RESULTS

Our analysis of the COGME Fourth Report indicates that internal medicine PGY-1 positions would decrease from the 8,936 on duty in the 1992 academic year to 6,533 (-26.9%) for the class of the year 2000. Four thousand will enter generalist careers in internal medicine (approximately a 70% increase over current generalist output). The COGME Fourth Report recommendations would allocate first-year fellowship positions for 1,400 graduates of internal medicine residencies (-63.1%). Career-bound internal medicine positions will decrease from approximately 6,000 to 5,400 (-10.0%). The loss in PGY-1 positions is predominantly due to a decrease in the number of preliminary medicine positions and to individuals who switch from career-bound internal medicine positions to other disciplines after the PGY-1 or PGY-2 years. Pediatric positions would increase moderately from 2,426 available in 1993 to 2,520 (+3.9%). Pediatric subspecialty positions would decrease by 25% to 420, with 2,100 residents entering careers in general pediatrics. Family medicine PGY-1 positions would increase from the 2,657 available in 1993 to 3,400 (+28%).

CONCLUSIONS

The recommendations contained in the COGME Fourth Report would substantially reduce the number, and significantly alter the current distribution, of residency positions. The output goals of 50% generalist careers are met by an increase in career-bound generalist positions in all three generalist specialties. The limitation of total positions to the goal of 110% of 1993 U.S. graduates comes predominantly through reduction of specialty/subspecialty career-bound positions. Internal medicine residency and subspecialty fellowship positions and programs would be significantly altered by these recommendations. The reductions in internal medicine occur predominantly in loss of positions not currently destined for careers in internal medicine and in subspecialty fellowship positions. These reductions are partially offset by an increase in the complement of residents who are destined for careers in general internal medicine.