Chumlea W C, Guo S S, Steinbaugh M L
Department of Community Health, Wright State University School of Medicine, Dayton, Ohio 45435.
J Am Diet Assoc. 1994 Dec;94(12):1385-8, 1391; quiz 1389-90. doi: 10.1016/0002-8223(94)92540-2.
No adequate methods exist for predicting stature to help assess the growth of handicapped (including mobility-impaired) children or to help in developing indexes of obesity or equations for estimating basal energy expenditure for adults. In this project, equations were developed to predict stature in white and black adults and children from nationally representative samples for application to mobility-impaired and handicapped persons.
Samples of healthy adults (n = 5,415) and children (n = 13,821) were selected from cycles I, II, and III of the National Health Examination Survey (NHES) conducted by the National Center for Health Statistics from 1960 to 1970. Balanced validation and cross-validation groups were created with regard to age, ethnic group, and sex.
The NHES is the only national survey that contains body measurements biologically appropriate for predicting stature. These measurements include stature, sitting height, knee height, and buttocks to knee length.
Equations were computed from an all-possible-subsets of weighted regression procedure to select the predictor variables in the validation group based on the values of R2 and the root mean square error.
Knee height predicted stature for white and black men, but the predictor variables for white and black women were knee height and age. For predicting stature in children 6 to 18 years of age, the predictor variable was knee height for all children.
The equations presented here were developed for use with mobility-impaired or handicapped persons, but the measurements were collected from ambulatory people by means of standard techniques. The use of recumbent anthropometric data from mobility-impaired or handicapped persons in the equations will expand the errors of prediction over those presented in this report. The standard error for a person is a guide to the range of probability within which a predicted value can occur.
目前尚无足够的方法来预测身高，以帮助评估残疾（包括行动不便）儿童的生长情况，或用于制定肥胖指数或估算成年人基础能量消耗的公式。在本项目中，我们开发了一些公式，用于根据具有全国代表性的样本预测白人和黑人成年人及儿童的身高，以便应用于行动不便和残疾人群体。
从1960年至1970年由国家卫生统计中心开展的全国健康检查调查（NHES）的第一、二、三轮中选取了健康成年人（n = 5415）和儿童（n = 13821）样本。根据年龄、种族和性别创建了平衡验证组和交叉验证组。
NHES是唯一一项包含从生物学角度适合预测身高的身体测量数据的全国性调查。这些测量数据包括身高、坐高、膝高以及臀膝长度。
通过加权回归程序的所有可能子集计算方程，以便根据R2值和均方根误差在验证组中选择预测变量。
膝高可预测白人和黑人男性的身高，但白人及黑人女性的预测变量为膝高和年龄。对于预测6至18岁儿童的身高，所有儿童的预测变量均为膝高。
这里给出的公式是为行动不便或残疾人群体开发的，但测量数据是通过标准技术从能行走的人群中收集的。在公式中使用行动不便或残疾人群体的卧位人体测量数据会扩大预测误差，超出本报告中呈现的误差范围。个体的标准误差可作为预测值可能出现的概率范围的参考。
