Workforce predictions: a situational analysis and critique of the World Health Organisation model.

The FDI/WHO JWG6 Computer Program is a needs-based, demand-weighted method of workforce prediction. Using this program and recent Victorian epidemiological data the objectives of the investigation were: to calculate the current state of community need for dental services and personnel in the State of Victoria; to forecast community service and personnel needs for the years 2000 and 2020; and to report qualitatively on the program's value as a workforce planning tool. High, low and moderate estimates of workforce requirements for the year 1988 were obtained by modifying certain variables related to needs/demands. The moderate estimate was used to calculate the number of operators needed within the population, and this demonstrated a required operator to population ratio of 1:2,019. Results for the year 2000 predicted the operator to population ratio required in Victoria will be 1:1,988 and for the year 2020, 1:2,165. Conclusions concerning the WHO program are firstly that it suggests a present under-supply of oral health care providers which is likely to increase by the year 2020 and secondly that it is a useful tool for workforce planning and monitoring.